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                                            文章详情
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                                            复合肥冬储现僵局 下一步怎么走?
                                            更新日期:2017-12-11 11:04:23点击量:

                                            时至12月中旬,复合肥的冬储工作在跌跌撞撞中缓慢行进,原料价格的不断攀升、环保限制开工、新政策不断出台,今年的冬储市场上演了一场惊心动魄的电影,与去年相比,复合肥的报价涨幅高达300元/吨左右,但是市场却陷入僵局,复合肥的冬储进入寒冬。

                                            首先,原料成本依旧不断增加,复合肥企业压力仍存。虽然近期尿素价格出?#20013;?#24133;回落,(山东两河地区小颗粒尿素的主流出厂报价回落至1710-1740元/吨左右,较前期回落30-40元/吨左右),但价格?#28304;?#20110;高位,且国际价格有企稳反弹的迹象,后期还要继续关注煤炭价格走势和开工率,所以?#30340;?#32032;行情短期的低迷并不能说明问题;磷酸一铵报价小幅下滑50元/吨,但价格如尿素一样仍偏高,现湖北地区55%粉的主流出厂报价在2450-2500元吨左右,仅少数河南企业报价偏低;12月6日,盐湖钾肥价格的突然上涨打破了钾?#24066;星?#23433;静的世界,现盐湖60%粉、晶报价上涨100元/吨至2050元/吨到站,无月度优惠,只有年度返利。综合来看,复合肥的原料成本仍呈现增长趋势,从成本面上说,短期复合肥的报价很难回落。

                                            其次,环保压力依旧?#20013;?#22797;合肥开工低位运行。近期全国各地环保巡查的声音再次响起,尤其是山东和两河地区企业,受冬季雾霾天气和“6+26”煤改气行动的推进,复合肥企业开工受到?#29616;?#24433;响,现山东和两河地区的多数复合肥企业开工率仅在45%左右,而全国整体开工率?#27493;?#22312;54%左右,企业低开工运行意味着库存量的降低,目前多数企业仍在执行前期收款的低价订单,发货依旧偏紧,同时多数企业的低价原料也面临用尽,高价位原料采购缓慢,复合肥产品货源偏紧且原料不足,这也意味着短期内复合?#26102;?#20215;不会出现大幅回落。

                                            最后,部分企业推出的高端报价,下游很难?#37038;堋?/strong>11月底12月初,一部分复合肥大型企业陆续召开复合肥冬储订货会,有些企业出台冬储打款政策,但并未出台报价;有些企业执行11月底的报价,但即将涨价;另外还有一部分复合肥企业推出高端报价,如45%硫基通用复合肥的出厂报价高达2450元/吨左右,而部分企业45%硫基通用复合肥东北到站的报价也涨至2400-2500元/吨,而经销商?#28304;?#25253;价多不买账,因为目前并非销售季节,部分经销商还存有部分低价库存,所以并不急于补货,企业新单收款十分缓慢,市场复合肥冬储陷入僵局。


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                                                                                      湖北快三

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