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                                            文章詳情
                                            當前位置:新聞中心>行業動態
                                            復合肥冬儲現僵局 下一步怎么走?
                                            更新日期:2017-12-11 11:04:23點擊量:

                                            時至12月中旬,復合肥的冬儲工作在跌跌撞撞中緩慢行進,原料價格的不斷攀升、環保限制開工、新政策不斷出臺,今年的冬儲市場上演了一場驚心動魄的電影,與去年相比,復合肥的報價漲幅高達300元/噸左右,但是市場卻陷入僵局,復合肥的冬儲進入寒冬。

                                            首先,原料成本依舊不斷增加,復合肥企業壓力仍存。雖然近期尿素價格出現小幅回落,(山東兩河地區小顆粒尿素的主流出廠報價回落至1710-1740元/噸左右,較前期回落30-40元/噸左右),但價格仍處于高位,且國際價格有企穩反彈的跡象,后期還要繼續關注煤炭價格走勢和開工率,所以說尿素行情短期的低迷并不能說明問題;磷酸一銨報價小幅下滑50元/噸,但價格如尿素一樣仍偏高,現湖北地區55%粉的主流出廠報價在2450-2500元噸左右,僅少數河南企業報價偏低;12月6日,鹽湖鉀肥價格的突然上漲打破了鉀肥行情安靜的世界,現鹽湖60%粉、晶報價上漲100元/噸至2050元/噸到站,無月度優惠,只有年度返利。綜合來看,復合肥的原料成本仍呈現增長趨勢,從成本面上說,短期復合肥的報價很難回落。

                                            其次,環保壓力依舊持續,復合肥開工低位運行。近期全國各地環保巡查的聲音再次響起,尤其是山東和兩河地區企業,受冬季霧霾天氣和“6+26”煤改氣行動的推進,復合肥企業開工受到嚴重影響,現山東和兩河地區的多數復合肥企業開工率僅在45%左右,而全國整體開工率也僅在54%左右,企業低開工運行意味著庫存量的降低,目前多數企業仍在執行前期收款的低價訂單,發貨依舊偏緊,同時多數企業的低價原料也面臨用盡,高價位原料采購緩慢,復合肥產品貨源偏緊且原料不足,這也意味著短期內復合肥報價不會出現大幅回落。

                                            最后,部分企業推出的高端報價,下游很難接受。11月底12月初,一部分復合肥大型企業陸續召開復合肥冬儲訂貨會,有些企業出臺冬儲打款政策,但并未出臺報價;有些企業執行11月底的報價,但即將漲價;另外還有一部分復合肥企業推出高端報價,如45%硫基通用復合肥的出廠報價高達2450元/噸左右,而部分企業45%硫基通用復合肥東北到站的報價也漲至2400-2500元/噸,而經銷商對此報價多不買賬,因為目前并非銷售季節,部分經銷商還存有部分低價庫存,所以并不急于補貨,企業新單收款十分緩慢,市場復合肥冬儲陷入僵局。


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                                                                                      湖北快三

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